Brexit in the balance: A look at possible outcomes of the UK vote Brexit in the balance: A look at possible outcomes of the UK voteTalk about some of those issues in now High they’re, on the minds of Voters with Chris Curtis political research manager of for the polling Institute and research group, a yougov! Thank you for speaking this year on France, 24. That’S having me yougov back in 2017, win against the grain and predicted it would not have an outright majority way of polling. It proved correct. Using the same methodology tell us about the methodology tells what you found out, what we doing, unlike a traditional polish, trying to walk out, what’s going to happen in all of the constituencies across over the other day, Britain important exercise to do now going into the 2017 Election, what we said is the outcome when we this time around what we saying about the data indicates, is it a conservative majority of smoking? Septic majority is the most likely outcome. However, it’s still possible that we could hunt end up with a hung. Parliament still possible for a hung. Parliament, with this survey also finds, is that so-called marginal seats, ones that are up for grabs, are more numerous than we think is i28c conservative majority outcome traditional seeds with lots of sore traditional working-class, like the voters who which of the back part of the century. However, that now moving over to the conservatives, because they supported leave in the referendum, is winning the Mighty Ducks with that got brexit John message: now: that’s good news for the conservatives. If I can win them, but as a load to these seats, I’ve already called ahead. I even asked what can cause traditional leave leading votes in the final 48 hours to come time that we could end up with a hung. Parliament, probably not going to be enough directions back in the spring, was a much higher turnout than I’ve been predicted and that, through all the predictions off with the fact that we’ve seen a surge in voter registration for this general election, could that also upset your mom? Well, I’m old doesn’t say that 10 out, pasta is all going to be the same if they have been in previous elections and to be honest with you, I still think that is the most likely outcome. Obviously we could see a move until now. It’S very hard to predict opinion polling polling, and this is a bit of a weird election – is happening in December. For example, we haven’t had seen that happen in the back part of the century. We don’t know what impact that will have play just be slightly less likely to bite his, because that’s the person that we seen happen across the election in which recent years excited about the registration numbers in most cases, those that registertovote actually of people that were already On the rights to someone else or moved house, and things like that, looking at the register looks like the size of the register is about the same as it was last time around, and I wouldn’t expect those big Dynamics cool. To give quite sad, when did Isaac a minute turned out that you’ve done that wasn’t very much into because we suffered since that debate, where the star of the show is the audience laughing at both candidates. Does your polling confirm that it really isn’t on popularity contest? It was, I think, it’s bad to say. Both main Party leaders have recovered over this campaign. We’Ve seen that votes shows coming up and we’ve seen the favorability ratings of the main to party leaders go up so it to be at this stage 19 campaign and none of the major contenders to be prime minister likes by the public. More than that, traditional politics, news meant some of those traditional loyalties falling apart, that’s harder for a party leaders to build the combinations in the public support at 8 that need to get in order to get so popular. When I mentioned it in my introduction Chris, that the Tactical voting is linked to brexit, is it the big issue find out voting for the party that they want? Tonight.? If I sit at 4 system, that will be a chunk of people, we call them motivated remain as Visa people who voted remain in the referendum, have such tribal loyalties towards politics. In addition to that that really quite interested in politics, Richmond State, this is going to play out in some of those states that bunch of heavily remain in the referendum, where these roaches move around to try and start the Tories. And then, of course, we shall see on Friday how how how the chips fall. Chris Curtis political research, I’m sure you got. Thank you so much for speaking with your on France, 24. Thank you for having me will be by the way I live from London for a special edition of the France 24 debate, Thursday. At our usual time, there’s more news to come, Plus A national election in Britain on Thursday will bring a new Parliament to power and could lead to a change at the top if Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party does not fare well with voters.
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